Hazard and Exposure Assessment to Sea Level Rise in Mainland Portugal

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) poses an increasing threat to Portugal’s coastal zones. This study assessed the exposure of urban areas along mainland Portugal to sea level rise scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100) using Total Water Level estimation, integrating tidal, storm surge, runup, and IPCC/NASA SLR projections (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Results show that 23% of coastal hazard zones are currently urbanized, potentially rising to 30% by 2100. Twelve municipalities were identified as high-priority for adaptation. The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated coastal management policies and spatial planning strategies to mitigate risks and promote sustainable coastal resilience.