Coastal Erosion Susceptibility and Exposure in the Municipality of Peniche – Recent and Future Evolution

Abstract

This study assesses the recent (2008–2023) and projected evolution of the Peniche coastline, combining logistic regression modeling of cliff landslide susceptibility with shoreline change analysis using DSAS. Results show significant retreat in the Gambôa – Baleal and Azenhas sectors and minor accretion in Molhe Leste – Consolação. The Baleal – Pico da Mota sector exhibits the highest cliff erosion susceptibility. Although current exposure of residential areas is low, monitoring and improved projection models are essential for future coastal risk management and land-use planning.